The Week in Review: How was this Colt 12-1 in the Haskell?

In hindsight, the victory by Geaux Rocket Ride in Saturday's GI Haskell S. was not at all difficult to predict. The real puzzler is how this top-tier Candy Ride (Arg) colt was let go at 12-1 in the betting.

A pari-mutuel post-mortem points to a “perfect storm” anchored by two factors:

The 2-for-2 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo), the highly hyped sophomore from last winter, absorbed overzealous 11-10 favoritism despite not having raced in six months, with the Bob Baffert training factor (nine Haskell wins) contributing mightily to the colt's top-heavy price.

Monmouth Park's premier race also included the GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage (Good Magic). His status as a “headline horse,” though, was tempered to 4.3-1 in the betting, largely because his connections had telegraphed for weeks in advance that the Haskell would be used as a stepping stone to the Aug. 26 GI Travers S. at Saratoga.

But beyond those two favorites, it's hard to imagine why three other horses received more wagering support in the Haskell than Geaux Rocket Ride, who up until early April had been one of the West Coast's top Triple Crown threats before a fever on the morning of the GI Santa Anita Derby knocked him out of contention for the Classics.

Maybe you could figure on 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit), taking his share of the Haskell action at 4.8-1 off a third-place try in the GI Belmont S. Not so easy to fathom was the 4.9-1 support thrown to Salute the Stars (Candy Ride {Arg}) off his neck win over the track in the not-very-deep Pegasus S., or the 8-1 price on another 'TDN Rising Star,' Extra Anejo (Into Mischief), who entered the Haskell off an Ellis Park allowance romp over four foes.

Monmouth bettors must have also missed the memo on the decades-in-the-making training reputation of Hall-of-Famer Richard Mandella, who is known as a conditioner who doesn't ship horses cross-country for major races unless he believes he has an outsized chance of winning. Mandella had only started one previous colt in the Haskell, which was 23 years ago when he won the race with Dixie Union.

Jockey Mike Smith was in from Del Mar to pilot Geaux Rocket Ride for the first time, aiming for his fourth Haskell win. His last victory in that stakes was in 2020 aboard Authentic, who was 3-5 against a field of six and had secured an easy lead through tepid fractions. Home free by three lengths at the eighth pole, Authentic wilted badly in the final furlong before being reawakened by a desperate flurry of right-handed stick work from Smith to salvage a nose victory.

On Saturday, despite being aboard a 12-1 shot, Smith deftly rode Geaux Rocket Ride like the colt deserved to be odds-on. Next time out, he will be.

It's also conceivable that Geaux Rocket Ride could use the Haskell as a springboard to winning the GI Breeders' Cup Classic and being named Horse of the Year and/or champion 3-year-old colt, like Authentic did three years ago.

Geaux Rocket Ride, who started his career as a speed-centric sort but has adeptly transitioned into dangerous stalking colt, came out cleanly from the inside stall. Arabian Knight broke quicker from post eight, and it was evident right from the outset that Smith wanted no part of fighting for the lead. Arabian Knight hooked up with–and then backed off from–the 61-1 Awesome Strong (Awesome Slew), who cemented his status as a sacrificial pacemaker before the field hit the first turn.

Smith also wasn't too keen on getting bogged down on the rail. In two-turn dirt races, it's often his method of operation to try and get to the outside and establish trouble-free positioning before the field straightens away on the backstretch, even if it means giving up ground. He let Geaux Rocket Ride settle in about the four path through the turn, then was content to be parked six deep and about three lengths behind the five-wide Arabian Knight, whose jockey, John Velazquez, was also avoiding the inside fence like it was strung with barbed wire.

Arabian Knight was toying with Awesome Strong at that point, and Velazquez decided to seize the lead after an up-tempo opening quarter in :22.80 before slowing down the second and third fractions to :24.31 and :24.54.

The field started to bunch approaching the far turn, and while it's not fair to say that the triple-teaming of Awesome Strong, Salute the Stars, and the 37-1 Howgreatisnate (Speightster) were the cause of Arabian Knight's unraveling, they all contributed pesky, mid-race pace pressure at the same time Geaux Rocket Ride was winding up for a confrontation three-eighths from home.

It took Geaux Rocket Ride a full furlong to crack a stubborn Arabian Knight at the quarter pole. But by that time, the Derby winner had them both within his striking sights and was cresting toward top momentum.

Looking like the horse to beat, Mage snatched the lead off the turn, but only for a brief instant. Geaux Rocket Ride needed only one left-handed crack of the crop to re-assert his presence, and while the small-but-scrappy Mage never quit, the two months off since his third-place try in the GI Preakness S. began to show.

Ridden out while extending his margin through the stretch with every stride, the lankier Geaux Rocket Ride strode home to win by 1 3/4 lengths through a final quarter timed in :25.42 and a last eighth clocked in :12 45.

The Pin Oak Stud colorbearer's winning time of 1:49.52 for nine furlongs translated to a 100 Beyer Speed Figure.

The Haskell yielded two key takeaways for the Travers: 1) Geaux Rocket Ride won't contest it. Not a surprise considering the conditioner–another cross country trip would be “pushing” it, as per Mandella, who was non-committal about the colt's next start; 2) Mage will be a tighter fighter in a month with a very useful runner-up try under his belt and an extra furlong to work with.

Geaux Rocket Ride got a late start this season with respect to the Triple Crown trail. He debuted with a 92 Beyer in 5 3/4-length six-furlong shellacking at Santa Anita Jan. 29, then earned a 96 when second and transitioning to two turns and against winners for the first time in the Mar. 4 GII San Felipe S.

Somewhat surprisingly, he was narrowly favored at 2.7-1 in that 1 1/16-miles stakes over the more experienced winner, Practical Move (Practical Joke). Despite not winning, Geaux Rocket Ride actually uncorked the more powerful performance, forcing a legit pace and finishing with purpose in one of the more impressive prep-race defeats on the 2023 Derby trail.

That positive glow was enough to vault Geaux Rocket Ride all the way to fourth in TDN's Derby Top 12 at the time. In the Mar 14 edition of those rankings, I wrote that such a “combination of raw, front-end torque matched with still-developing staying power is an attribute you don't see often in second-time-starters.”

Because of the fever and missed start in the Santa Anita Derby, Geaux Rocket Ride didn't make start number three until the June 4 Affirmed S. at Santa Anita, which he won with a 90 Beyer after stalking three wide on both turns.

Seven weeks later, Mandella was in the Haskell winner's circle, telling FanDuel TV's Caton Bredar in his typically understated way how half a year ago, he wasn't quite sure what type of prospect he had.

“He didn't train exceptional going into his first race. He trained just good enough to give us hope. But when he left the gate the first time with his ears back and fight on his mind, you could just see [the talent] was there.”

Asked how confident he was about his 12-1 shot's chances during the running of the Haskell, Mandella put it this way:

“Everything looked great, other than I looked at [Arabian Knight] on the far turn and the rider was sitting there with a heck of a hold. And I thought, 'Oh, boy, when he turns him loose…'

“But,” Mandella said, his wry smile evident in his voice, “The Rocket turned it loose.”