From the time Sir Barton became the first to sweep the GI Kentucky Derby, GI Preakness S. and GI Belmont S. in 1919 until Citation became the eighth to run the table in 1948, the most time that transpired between successful Triple Crown bids was the 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox in 1930. With his 31-length demolition of the field in 1973, Secretariat snapped a 25-year drought, while Seattle Slew and Affirmed made it three Triple Crowns in the space of six years in 1977 and 1978, respectively. Since then, 13 have tried and 13 have been denied, but Zayat Stables' American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) can enter the annals of history as the 3-5 favorite in Saturday's 'Test of the Champion' on Long Island.
Three of those 13 to fail have, remarkably, been conditioned by Bob Baffert, with Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet (1998) falling short by painfully small margins. The fate of War Emblem was sealed in the opening two strides of 2002 Belmont when he stumbled and could never deploy his speed, clearly his best asset. Close as those horses came to racing immortality, perhaps the most disappointing of Baffert's dual Classic winners was Point Given, who raced too close to the pace in the 2001 Derby and was out of the money before bouncing back in the Preakness and powering home to win the Belmont by better than a dozen lengths.
The talent of that collective horseflesh notwithstanding, Baffert is quietly confident–or perhaps even not so quietly confident.
“He's the best horse I've trained and he's my best hope for the Triple Crown,” he said. “He was the champion last year and this year he has gone on and shown himself to be a superior horse. He has performed brilliantly.”
It was a slippery slope traversed earlier this year, as Baffert and Zayat programmed just two pre-Derby starts for American Pharoah. Each of those trips to Hot Springs went swimmingly and with a minimum of fuss, and if his Derby success took something out of him, it wasn't on display at Old Hilltop, where he was seven lengths clear of longshot Tale of Verve (Tale of Ekati) at the wire. He trained brilliantly at Churchill following the Preakness, and nothing Baffert has seen this week suggests the colt is regressing.
“[Friday's] morning gallop was the last hurdle,” he commented. “It was a strong gallop and he floated over the track. He looks the same as he did out on the track before the Derby and the Preakness. He looked like a monster out there. I am really happy with the way he went. He's still sharp.”
Baffert admits he is a changed person as he approaches Saturday's events.
“This fourth time will be different because I'm much older and mellower and I know what I have to deal with so I'm not so overwhelmed,” he said. “This horse has a different vibe than the others. He's shown that he's a superior horse. He just needs to bring it one more time.”
Ask Kent Desormeaux. Knock on Stewart Elliott's door. Poll Victor Espinoza. Each of those knows the perils of riding the Belmont, and, as is often the case, Saturday's race should prove to be a true chess match among the riders.
While American Pharoah demonstrated in his Arkansas and Kentucky Derby wins that he was willing to switch off a little bit and stalk a horse or two, it was pedal to the medal in the Preakness, given the off track and the draw in gate one. Espinoza, riding in his second straight Triple Crown attempt, will have a decision to make soon after the break as to whether to lead straight away or whether to take back and allow GI Florida Derby hero 'TDN Rising Star' Materiality(Afleet Alex) to show the way. After displaying good speed to best Upstart (Flatter) in the Hallandale feature Mar. 28, the Alto Racing runner was never in a forward position on Derby day, but was one of the few in the field to flash any late steam to finish a good sixth. That troubled trip has many thinking that Materiality, one of two in the race for dual Belmont-winning trainer Todd Pletcher alongside GII Peter Pan S. hero Madefromlucky (Lookin at Lucky), is the likeliest party-pooper.
“I like the fact that we drew outside of American Pharoah,” Pletcher said of Materiality, who is reunited with John Velazquez. “We're going to make sure we break well this time and go into the first turn trying to make sure there's an honest pace.” Javier Castellano has the return call on Madefromlucky.
Godolphin's Frosted (Tapit), whose season seemed on the brink of disaster over the winter, righted the ship in the GI TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial S. and ran on strongly to just miss third in the Derby, despite a wide run on the final turn. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who sent out Jazil (Seeking the Gold) to win the 2006 Belmont, envisions Frosted somewhere around midpack in the running.
“In a mile-and-a-half race, they will all have plenty of time to sort it all out,” he explained. “Materiality drew well, eight of eight, as did American Pharoah, five of eight, and they'll probably be the first two into the first turn and we'll probably be third to six and from there we'll let Joel [Rosario] work it out.”
Rosario won last year's Belmont aboard Tonalist (Tapit).
Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum's Mubtaahij (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) was the wildcard going into the Kentucky Derby and is very much filling the same role heading into the Belmont. The G2 UAE Derby winner was an even eighth beneath the Twin Spires and was at first heading back to Europe following the race. But connections called an audible, and the colt has trained vigorously at Big Sandy. While he was always going to be run off his feet by faster, American-based runners in Louisville, the shape of the Belmont could result in Mubtaahij being much more in the thick of things early on, though trainer Mike de Kock wasn't exactly over the moon with having drawn the rail.
“I don't think a mile and a half is a problem at all,” the South African offered. “He's by Dubawi and there's a lot of stamina in his family. The way he won the Derby in Dubai I'd be shocked if he didn't get the distance. He did win from drawing [post] one in Dubai, but I'd rather be on the outside to be honest. We've got a rider that knows his way around the track. You've got to leave it to the rider.”
In additon to Tale of Verve, Keen Ice (Curlin) and Frammento (Midshipman) will try to pick up the pieces from the back of the pack. Despite a bit of trouble for each in the Derby, both of those look to have it all to do on a day where history is about 150 seconds away.
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