by Bill Finley
Yes, anything is possible, particularly when it comes to a 20-horse rodeo where form sometimes goes out the window. But can you really see someone other than Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert winning the Kentucky Derby?
Whatever chance those not named Todd or Bob had of winning the Derby diminished significantly yesterday as the two big guns from the sport's two most prominent stables performed magnificently.
Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway) always did look like Pletcher's best hope for winning the Kentucky Derby and he looks even better now that he turned in a dominating performance in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. This is a horse without a flaw. He is beautifully bred, he is fast and classy and he has had a perfect route to the Kentucky Derby, winning at Tampa Bay prior to yesterday.
Pletcher might have everything he needs to win his second Kentucky Derby, but it wouldn't hurt if he went out and bought a Baffert voodoo doll. It's quite possible that the only thing that stands between Pletcher and a Kentucky Derby win with Carpe Diem (or maybe Materiality?) is Mr. Baffert.
There weren't many knocks on Dortmund (Big Brown) coming into yesterday's Santa Anita Derby, but if you absolutely had to find one, it was that he never blew his competition away. His last three wins came by the margins of 1 1/4 lengths, a head and another head. That was not at all the story yesterday. He was a winner every step of the way, controlling the pace while comfortably in hand under Martin Garcia before drawing off to a dominant win. As is the case with Carpe Diem, it's impossible to find a flaw with this horse, who is undefeated in six starts and has already won over the tricky Churchill Downs surface.
For good measure Baffert finished second in the Santa Anita Derby with the improving One Lucky Dane (Lookin at Lucky), who stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with the effort.
While Baffert could not have had a better day, the Pletcher barn had a serious setback in the GI Twinspires.com Wood Memorial as favorite Daredevil (More Than Ready) looked nothing like a serious Kentucky Derby contender when finishing fourth. Either he's not that good or he's ill suited to nine furlongs and longer.
The Wood winner Frosted (Tapit) will give Godolphin another crack at the Kentucky Derby, a race noticeably lacking on its resume. He's a tough read. Running against the grain of a huge rail bias, he finished second in the Remsen last year and entered Derby prep season near the top of most everyone's Top 10 list. Then his stock fell with a second-place finish in the Holy Bull and a dull fourth in the Fountain of Youth. Was yesterday a case of Frosted finally putting it all together or him beating a weak field? Either way, his win lacked the sizzle that was so evident at Santa Anita and Keeneland.
It was also, of course, a day that saw a handful of notable horses run their way out of the Kentucky Derby picture. There were a lot of people jumping on the bandwagons of Bolo (Temple City) and Prospect Park (Tapit) prior to the Santa Anita Derby, but neither ran well enough for anyone to believe they have a serious chance 27 days from now in Louisville.
That may not be the case with Gotham winner El Kabeir (Scat Daddy), who finished third in the Wood Memorial. With veteran Chuck C. Lopez aboard, he was ridden like the only objective was to get some exercise as a warm-up for the Derby. He was kept curiously far back early before offering only a mild bid on his way to a non-threatening third.
He will likely run better in the Kentucky Derby, but that probably doesn't mean a thing, as Pletcher and Baffert have so many potent weapons between them that everyone else might be racing for third and fourth.
Baffert will likely have the Derby favorite, which will either be Dortmund or American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile). The latter will be 1-5 or lower next week in the last major prep left, the GI Arkansas Derby. Baffert's team will likely be rounded out by One Lucky Dane.
Carpe Diem will be right up there, the second or third choice. And it's not impossible that he will be the favorite. Unless the bettors fall in love with the UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), Florida Derby winner Materiality(Afleet Alex) looks like the fourth choice. Pletcher's lineup could also include GII Fountain of Youth winner (via disqualification) Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid) and GII Louisiana Derby runner-up Stanford (Malibu Moon).
That would mean seven of the 20 starters will be either Baffert or Pletcher horses and the top four choices in the betting could come from those two barns. Thirteen or so other stables will also be involved in the Derby, but, for them, it figures to be a long afternoon.
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