Andrew Caulfield on El Kabeir

JEROME S.-GIII, $200,000, AQU, 1-3, 3yo, 1m70y, 1:44 3/5, gd. 
1–EL KABEIR, 122, c, 3, by Scat Daddy 
     1st Dam: Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song 
     2nd Dam: Rose Colored Lady, by Formal Dinner 
     3rd Dam: Pink Forest, by Green Forest 
($250,000 yrl '13 OBSAUG). O-Zayat Stables LLC; 
B-Rustlewood Farm Inc (FL); T-John P Terranova II; 
J-Charles C Lopez. $120,000. Lifetime Record: 
6-3-1-1, $388,892. Werk Nick Rating: A+++ 
*Triple Plus*. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the brisnet.com chart or the brisnet.com PPs. VIDEO. 
“Upgrades his mares” is a proud claim often made of stallions, but the reality is that most stallions are only as good as the mares they receive. There are exceptions, of course, such as the $150,000 War Front and the $300,000 Tapit. These two currently rank first and third on the Blood-Horse's table of leading sires in order of their lifetime Average Earnings Indices (incidentally, it may pay to remember that Ghostzapper, the stallion in second place, is available for no more than $60,000). 

The top six stallions on this table all have an AEI higher than their mares' Comparable Index (CI), which “indicates the average earnings of progeny produced from mares bred to one sire, when these same mares were bred to other sires.” 
The Blood-Horse table usefully informs us that only 32% of all sires have a lifetime AEI higher than their mares' Comparable Index. The 68% with lower figures include Distorted Humor, Empire Maker, Medaglia d'Oro, Giant's Causeway, Lemon Drop Kid, Tiznow, More Than Ready and Bernardini, which suggests that it isn't easy–even for a very accomplished stallion–to maintain an AEI higher than the relevant CI once his fee becomes substantial. 

These musings were prompted by the GIII Jerome S. success of El Kabeir, a Scat Daddy colt who gave weight and a substantial beating to his seven opponents at Aqueduct Saturday. This success came little more than a month after El Kabeir had narrowly landed the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill Downs. 

Scat Daddy has an AEI of 1.72, whereas his mares' CI is 1.58, so this GI Champagne S. and GI Florida Derby winner can indeed claim to be upgrading his mares. This claim looks even stronger if you look at the backgrounds of the 11 graded stakes winners which have so far emerged from the 330 named foals in his first four crops. 

None of them is out of a graded stakes winner and only two of the 11–the Grade II winner Daddy Long Legs and the Grade III winner Shared Property–can claim to have a stakes-winning dam. 

His first Grade I winner, that fine turf filly Lady of Shamrock, is out of a mare who failed to earn a single dollar in three starts, whereas the dam of his G1 Prix Morny winner No Nay Never, earned no more than $24,185 in building a record of 12-1-3-1. 

Completing the list are Handsome Mike (dam's record 12-1-4-1), Dice Flavor (1-0-0-0), Daddy Nose Best (12-0-1-1), Scatman (8-0-0-1), Finale (11-1-1-1), Frac Daddy (16-3-0-3) and El Kabeir, whose dam never raced. In other words, five of the 11 are out of mares without a win to their name and three of the winning dams had a combined record of three wins from 35 starts. 

In assessing Scat Daddy's achievements so far, it is worth remembering that he was far from immune to the fluctuating support which affects so many young stallions. 

Although he attracted 162 mares at his opening fee of $30,000 in 2008, a reduction to $22,500 in his second season failed to maintain his momentum and his book fell to 100 mares. Another reduction, this time to $15,000, also failed to halt the exodus, his third-season figures being 92 mares for 54 named foals. Ashford responded by reducing Scat Daddy's fee once again, this time to $10,000 in 2011. 

By then Scat Daddy's first yearlings had passed through the sales ring without being particularly well received (25 of the 76 offered failed to find buyers and their median of $40,000 was only $10,000 higher than his initial fee). Perhaps he was paying the price of being a son of Johannesburg, who was sold to Japan at the end of 2009 after generally failing to win over American breeders. 

However, Scat Daddy's youngsters at the 2011 2-year-old sales fared much better, achieving such prices as $400,000, $250,000 and $220,000 and this no doubt encouraged breeders to take a chance with him at only $10,000. This time his book soared to 191 mares and consequently Scat Daddy has plenty of ammunition in his fourth crop, which has already produced El Kabeir, Daddy D.T. (third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf) and Conquest Boogaloo (Swynford S.). 
So what does the future hold for Scat Daddy? It seems fair to assume that his star is going to continue in the ascendant. He attracted 217 mares at a fee of $17,500 in 2012, and this crop achieved an average of more than $122,000 at last year's yearling sales. Eight of them sold for between $300,000 and $500,000, which suggests that Scat Daddy is going to have some impressive juveniles representing him this year. The following two crops should also be worth waiting for, as Scat Daddy covered 171 mares at $30,000 in 2013 and 202 at $30,000 last year. 

El Kabeir is also a fine advertisement for Unbridled's Song's broodmare daughters, as are Carpe Diem and West Coast Belle, two other graded stakes-winning 2-year-olds of 2014. 

His dam Great Venue had sold for $150,000 as a yearling, but her price fell to $95,000 in 2011, when she was sold in foal to Scat Daddy. That foal, of course, was El Kabeir, who made his dam look a bargain when he sold for $250,000 as a yearling.