Come September-Part 2

By Bill Oppenheim

Horses will be shipping in tomorrow, and beginning to show Friday, for the biggest yearling sale of all, Keeneland September. They are gearing up for 13 days of selling over a 14-day period beginning next Monday. Last year Keeneland September heralded the beginning of a significant recovery in the Thoroughbred business, as 2,744 yearlings sold (over 70% of the 3,908 catalogued) for almost $280.5-million, a $60-million (28%) gain from the 2012 sale. Last year's September average was $102,220, which marked the first time since 2007 that the September sale had averaged over $100,000, though, as we noted at the time, the number of yearlings sold in September had dropped by over 1,000 and the gross by $100-million (28% and 27% respectively) in order for the average to come out essentially the same.
This year there are 246 sires responsible for the 4,181 yearlings catalogued to sell in six books over
13 days of selling, with next Friday (the 12th) a dark day as usual at the end of the four-day Book 1 (click here to view full list). Then, beginning on Saturday the 13th, there are 3,419 yearlings catalogued over the next nine days of consecutive selling.

It does seem that the commercial stallion population is becoming more and more concentrated. There are
23 stallions with more than 50 yearlings each catalogued throughout the 13 days of selling, totaling 1,421 yearlings–over a third of the catalogue. Another third of the catalogue (1,447 yearlings) was sired by
37 other stallions with 30-49 yearlings catalogued each. Added together it means that over two-thirds of the catalogue (2,868 yearlings) are sired by 60 stallions. That works out to 60 sires which have an average of 47 yearlings each catalogued, which doesn't leave that much for everybody else. The other 186 stallions have 1,313 catalogued, which works out to an average of only about seven yearlings each.

As mentioned last week, the top three stallions by number catalogued throughout the whole sale all stand at Coolmore's Kentucky arm, Ashford Stud. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie), 2010 champion 2-year-old, has a total of 94 yearlings catalogued, 19 of which are in Book 1, and 75 in week two. Scat Daddy, who went from having 53 foals of 2011 (now 3-year-olds) to 127 foals of 2012, has a crop of 147 yearlings, of which over half (75) are consigned to Keeneland September. Cape Blanco, a five-time Group 1 winner by Galileo who won the Eclipse Award for champion turf male in North America in 2011–when he was undefeated in three Grade I's–has 71 yearlings catalogued from his first crop, 10 in Book 1 and 61 thereafter.

In fact, nine of the 11 stallions with 60 or more catalogued for the entire sale stand at just three Kentucky farms. Besides the top three, Ashford has a fourth sire in that category, the venerable Giant's Causeway, who has 67 catalogued–41 in Book 1 and 26 thereafter. Lane's End stands the fourth and fifth ranked sires by number catalogued, Lemon Drop Kid (70) and Candy Ride (Arg) (69). WinStar stands (or stood) three: Harlan's Holiday (67 catalogued from his second-last crop, 21 in the first week and 46 in the 'back books'); Colonel John (first 3-year-olds,
64 catalogued); and Congrats, whose early success translated into a crop of 157 yearlings, of which 61 are catalogued to Keeneland September. Also with 60+ catalogued are Taylor Made's deceased stalwart, Unbridled's Song (61, of which 42 are in Book 1, making him the sire with second-highest number catalogued in Book 1); and Ramsey Farm's 2013 North American leading sire, Kitten's Joy (60). WinStar makes up four of the top 12 with 59 yearlings catalogued byBellamy Road.

Of the 60 stallions with 30 or more catalogued, 13 are first-crop yearling sires, seven have their first 2-year-olds this year (so second crop of yearlings), and just three–possibly reflecting a combination of the difficulty third-crop sires normally face with the fact the crop of sires that went to stud in 2010 was very small, because of the world financial collapse–are sires with their first 3-year–olds. After the Ashford pair of Uncle Mo and Cape Blanco, four other first-crop yearling sires are represented in the 50's: Castleton Lyons' Gio Ponti (58), who I'm on record as saying (several times) should definitely be on the lists of European buyers; WinStar's blazing-fast miler Sidney's Candy (57), from Candy Ride's second crop; Spendthrift's Archarcharch (57), the 2011 GI Arkansas Derby winner; and Claiborne Farm's Trappe Shot (50), who has already had 15 yearlings sell this year, for an average of $149,600–nearly 15 times his opening $10,000 stud fee (click here). In the 40's are Airdrie's Haynesfield (47), the only horse to beat Blame in 2010; WinStar's Drosselmeyer (46), the 2010 GI Belmont S. and 2011 GI Breeders' Cup Classic winner; and Spendthrift's Tizway (40), the 2011 GI Met Mile and GI Whitney S. winner, who has had eight yearlings sell so far this year for an average of $179,625. This ranks him second on average among F2013 first-crop North American yearling sires, splitting Uncle Mo (14 sold, avg. $186,143) and Gio Ponti (seven sold, avg. $171,429). Also with 30+ catalogued are the Spendthrift pair of Paddy O'Prado (38) and Wilburn (31); and Lane's End's Twirling Candy (36), another seriously fast horse from Candy Ride's second crop.

As mentioned, seven sires with their first 2-year-olds are among the 60 sires which among them constitute two-thirds of the September catalogue. Among those seven are the current top four on the North American freshman sire list, in order: WinStar's Super Saver (54); Ashford's Lookin At Lucky (40); Spendthrift's Warrior's Reward (35); and Lane's End's Quality Road (31). Also strongly represented are current second-ten freshman sires Discreetly Mine (32), another Lane's End stallion; Taylor Made's Eskendereya (52); and Claiborne's Blame (36), all three of whom are showing considerable promise. All three 'second-crop' sires with their first 3-year-olds with 30 or more September yearlings are WinStar stallions: #1 North American second-crop sire Pioneerof the Nile (40), along with #4-ranked Colonel John (64) and second-ten second-crop sire U S Ranger (30).