Freshman Sires of 2019: How They Fared

The world of first-season sires is a fickle and unforgiving land. A sire can go from being on top of the world after his first crop lights up the yearling sales to being flung into the gutter just a few months later after those first representatives hit the track.

As keen as the market is to make fast judgements of sires, there have been examples that demonstrated first impressions can be misleading. The recent case of Nathaniel (Ire) bouncing back from an underwhelming first year with runners to quickly establish himself as a high-class sire the very next year is likely to be used by stallion masters for many years to try to keep their dreams alive after a disappointing first year with runners. That said, exceptions are exceptions because they are rare, and a bad start usually leads to a bad career.

In an effort to separate the good from the bad, now is a good time to examine how those sires that had their first runners in 2019 fared with their first 2-year-olds. It was a competitive year for this group, with there being 17 stallions based in Great Britain and Ireland that had 75 or more 2-year-olds to represent them. For the sake of comparison, there were 14 such stallions in 2018, 10 in 2017, 13 in 2016 and eight in 2015. It is also worth noting that there was more depth in the upper end of the market than is often the case, with six individual stallions having covered their first crop at a published fee of €20,000 or higher.

The accompanying table shows how they fared in order of the percentage of their runners that ran to a Racing Post Rating of 85 or higher.

Those with long memories may recall that the equivalent analysis of the first-season sires of 2018 panned out largely how the yearling market anticipated it would. This was not the case in 2019. The column on the extreme right of the corresponding table reveals what rank each sire held in my yearling sale analysis of the same sires in 2018 when ordered by their median price as a multiple of their stud fee plus fixed production costs. This shows that there was with no shortage of sires that performed both well above and well below the expectations bestowed on them based on how their progeny had fared at the yearling sales.

The star of the show amongst the new sires in 2019 was unquestionably Darley's Night Of Thunder (Ire). That is unlikely to come as a surprise to anyone that was following the fortunes of last year's first-season sires, but just how impressive the performance of his first runners was cannot be overstated.

The only sire that has achieved anything approaching these sorts of numbers with their first 2-year-old runners in the years I have been conducting this analysis is Frankel (GB) (42.9% RPR85+ and 17.1% RPR100+). It never seems fair to compare Frankel to any other sire, as few sires have ever had the quality and depth of mares sent to them in their first season that he did, so for Night Of Thunder's progeny to come so close to matching the figures achieved by Frankel's first 2-year-olds is truly remarkable.

The next best set of equivalent figures I have collated over the years was No Nay Never in 2018 when 30.5% of his first 2-year-olds reached RPR85 and 10.2% reached RPR100. For Night Of Thunder's numbers to be so far ahead of these hammers home just how impressive they are.

It is fair to point out that Night Of Thunder's first crop did not produce a real star of a 2-year-old, with none of them having reached RPR110. That said, as a son of Dubawi (Ire) out of a Galileo (Ire) mare, there must be a very strong chance that his progeny could prove even better as 3-year-olds.

The thought that Night Of Thunder's progeny may progress well with time is supported by the fact that only 46.7% of his first crop got to the racecourse as 2-year-olds. This is only slightly above the average of all the first-season sires of 2019 and significantly lower than the majority of high achievers in the group, which suggests some level of immaturity running through the crop.

Whatever way one wishes to paint it, there is no escaping the reality that Night Of Thunder made an exceptional start with his first 2-year-old runners. Indeed, one suspects that it could well be a long time before the numbers he registered in this brand of analysis are bettered.

Darley were very conservative in increasing his fee from £15,000 to just €25,000 for his return to Kildangan this year. Reports suggest that he has been massively and understandably oversubscribed ever since that fee was announced, so while most won't be able to join the party this year, it will be fascinating to watch how his progeny progress in 2020.

In most other seasons, the numbers put up by Gleneagles (Ire) (Coolmore) would have been sufficient to top the table. While there was clearly a level of expectation attached to him given he was the second-most expensive sire in this group and that his yearlings came out fourth-best in the analysis of the sales, he outperformed those expectations to flag himself as a very promising young sire. This thought is hammered home when one considers that him being a son of Galileo would strongly suggest that his progeny should progress well from two to three.

To further contextualise what Gleneagles achieved with his first runners, I sought to compare the performance of his first 2-year-olds to that of all the other notable sire sons of Galileo (Ire). It was fascinating to discover that of all the sons of Galileo that have gone to stud, only Frankel has had a better start with his first 2-year-olds. Gleneagles made a stronger start than the likes of Teofilo (Ire), New Approach (Ire) and Australia (GB), which puts him in a strong position to build on going forward.

Another fascinating pattern that emerges when assessing the performance of Gleneagles's first crop is the role that Aidan O'Brien and the Coolmore operation played in it. Of his 109 first-crop foals, Aidan O'Brien only trained six of them that got to the racecourse in 2019. In the table of his progeny arranged by peak RPR, those six horses occupied first, second, third, fourth, sixth and tenth. Four out of those six were bought at public auction. Only a very small number of stables in Ballydoyle are occupied by the offspring of unproven stallions every year, so the Coolmore team is entitled to be pleased with the job they did in selecting which progeny of Gleneagles to send there to give them the best chance to shine.

Coolmore has given Gleneagles a moderate increase in fee from €30,000 to €35,000 for 2020, which is still some way below his opening fee of €60,000. This appeals as being a fair fee given the abundant promise shown by his first 2-year-olds.

Of those that notably outperformed expectations, the surprise package of this group thus far has been Highclere Stud resident Cable Bay (Ire). Having stood his first season for just £6,500, his 68 juvenile runners registered a strong set of figures considering the relatively limited expectations attached to him based on his nomination fee and the modest sales results his first yearlings attracted. His percentage of RPR100+ horses is particularly impressive, though it perhaps should be noted that three of his five qualifiers maxed out at exactly RPR100 and another got to RPR101, thus meeting the criteria by the skin of their teeth. However, that shouldn't take away from what was a very strong start from their sire.

In terms of the broader picture for Cable Bay, his first 2-year-olds were clearly a forward bunch, with 59.6% of his crop having made it to the track last year. This is the fourth-highest such percentage amongst this group. Any sire that comes out towards the top of this criteria always warrants particular attention in terms of how well their progeny progress as 3-year-olds, as it isn't unusual for such above-average precocity to come at a cost of below-average progress as 3-year-olds. Thus, it will be worth watching how his progeny progress this year.

Highclere Stud increased Cable Bay's fee from £6,500 to £15,000 for 2020 and such an increase is justified by the performance of his first 2-year-olds. How they fare as 3-year-olds will help shape how much further Cable Bay can rise as a sire.

Shadwell stallion Muhaarar (GB) was in incredibly high demand amongst breeders from the very beginning and the results that his first crop established at the yearling sales were quite frankly phenomenal. Such high expectations were always going to be hard to live up to, but the above figures suggest the results achieved by his first 2-year-old runners have been disappointing in comparison.

There are clearly plenty of people that are keeping the faith with him, as the average/median prices that his yearlings realised last year didn't take anything like the dive that they might have been expected to.

Click the table below to enlarge.