2019 Kentucky Sires, Part II: First Foals Due

The first thing to say is that covering sire averages, in an industry that can seldom resist manipulating “statistics” into “damned lies”, are a transparently spurious guide to a stallion's prospects of coming up with better stock than might be implied by his fee. At every stage, when trying to establish a reputation, young sires are partly at the mercy of the mares who contribute 50 percent of their foals' genes. But that applies most obviously of all when it is the mare herself who is being sold, with a cover thrown in as a bonus.

Take the sale of Drumette (Henny Hughes) at Fasig-Tipton last November. She was carrying a foal by Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg}), who had started out as Claiborne that spring at a fee of $25,000–but who moved up the covering sire averages because Drumette's daughter Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) had the previous day won the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff, elevating her dam's value to $1,850,000.

As it happens, Mastery looks highly eligible to outpunch his fee, and we'll come to that shortly. But the fact is that Drumette realized more than double the amount paid for any mare with a cover by Arrogate or Gun Runner. Yes, it reflects well on Mastery that he was favoured with such a mare. But the quality or otherwise of those mares that happen to come onto the market is entirely random. Bottom line: forget covering sire averages.

As such, the Kentucky sires under review today are no easier to assess than the rookies we reviewed in Part I of this series. Certainly a cut in fee as early as the second season, perhaps responding to a disappointing first book, is a drastic rarity. Farms are naturally very wary of betraying a young sire's vulnerability in this way, because they know they will probably frighten off far more people than they can tempt.

No such problems for Juddmonte, enjoying a rejuvenation of their stallion roster either side of the ocean. Just as their team in Europe were so astute in managing the launch of Frankel (GB) (Galileo {Ire}), so Juddmonte have made a priority of quality over quantity for Arrogate (Unbridled's Song). In fact, one in four of his first book were Grade I winners or producers.

He was temperately priced at $75,000, having forfeited that air of invincibility after the G1 Dubai World Cup. The dramatic style of that success seems to have exhausted even the reserves that made him America's richest Thoroughbred, but for many of us, the real pinnacle had been that duel with California Chrome in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. Between that race and the one in Dubai, when chased home by Gun Runner, he pulled rank on consecutive Horses of the Year.

Having been purchased at public auction, admittedly, Arrogate doesn't offer the usual Juddmonte access to a deep homebred family. In fact, his first two dams each mustered only a solitary Grade III placing, but you have to love the fact that the second of them is by the great broodmare sire Deputy Minister; while the third dam is six-time Grade I winner and 2-year-old champion in Meadow Star (Meadowlake).

Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) closed the gap in their reputations to the point that he could start at Three Chimneys just a clip below at $70,000, his own talent having matured even as Arrogate went into decline. He, too, wound up with dominant wins in the Breeders' Cup Classic and GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational; and, like Accelerate this year, he offers the kind of exemplary genetic wares evident only in the older horse who has been allowed to flourish.

As such, to say that his fee looks perfectly fair–not least as the son of a Grade II-winning half-sister to another Horse of the Year in Saint Liam (Saint Ballado)–only reiterates the bewildering value represented by Accelerate, in the next intake, at just $20,000.

The aforementioned Mastery, who also sets out to enhance Candy Ride as a sire of sires, had a contrastingly brief career, but there is no denying the brilliance he exhibited in four unbeaten starts. A seven-length Grade I winner at two, albeit from a shortish field, he poignantly galloped into GI Kentucky Derby favoritism when winning the GII San Felipe S. by a similar margin only to be pulled up after the finish line with a career-ending injury.

What makes the Claiborne prospect of major interest at $25,000 is a third dam who is full sister to Miswaki, not to mention a second dam by another outstanding broodmare sire in Storm Cat. And Mastery's own mother is a half-sister to the Grade I-placed, Grade II-winning juvenile Jump Start (A.P. Indy). All in all, there's a lot of surplus glamour to this horse at the price.

A third son of Candy Ride in the intake is Unified, now alongside his sire at Lane's End at a competitive $10,000. He too has a third dam of note, a Storm Bird half-sister to Dehere, and is evidently a looker. Though unraced at two, he proved a very natural runner, heating up the clock as a 'TDN Rising Star,' Grade III and Grade II winner in his first three starts. At four, he was foiled only by a neck in the GI Carter H., and he's out of a sister to a GII winner by rising broodmare influence Dixie Union.

Candy Ride also illuminates the family of Classic Empire (Pioneerof The Nile), who became the sixth of seven 2-year-old champions to retire to Ashford, opening at $35,000. Classic Empire's fourth dam is half-sister to the mare who produced Candy Ride's sire, Ride The Rails; it's also the family of Harlan's Holiday and Boldnesian.

Having followed through with a Grade I success at three before his Kentucky Derby fourth and narrow runner-up finish in the GI Preakness S., Classic Empire unfortunately proved unable to race again. But his dual Grade I-placed second dam is by Miswaki, while his own mother represents another potent broodmare line via Cat Thief.

Quite a package, and one that understandably brought 185 mares to his door this spring. But even that book paled next to that of studmate Practical Joke (Into Mischief), who had a staggering 220 clients at $30,000. Though a well beaten third in Classic Empire's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he already had two Grade I wins under his belt by that stage and then consolidated with a hardy and honest sophomore campaign crowned, back over seven furlongs, in the GI H. Allen Jerkens S.

With his own sire soaring in fee, Practical Joke brings precocity, speed and looks to the middle market, so was always going to go down well. Into Mischief, of course, has achieved some remarkable upgrades in his stock. There is no getting away from the fact that you have to go under the fourth dam for the first graded stakes performer on Practical Joke's page, but that needn't stop anyone believing he can emulate his sire. Certainly you can picture him bringing home some nice pinhooks at the 2-year-old sales.

Remarkably, even his book was narrowly surpassed by one of the other Ashford novices, Cupid (Tapit) having entertained 223 partners at $12,500–a tally surpassed among all American sires only by Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) himself.

That only goes to show the commercial nous of the Coolmore team, as this is a very different proposition. Unraced at two, Cupid is a half-brother to two other graded stakes winners; his Classic build and breeding raised $900,000 as a yearling and he reserved his Grade I day in the sun for the Santa Anita Gold Cup at four. Still bigger things appeared to be expected than he managed thereafter, but at a helpful fee breeders are plainly prepared to gamble that the best remains yet to come.

Another monster book, squeezed between the Ashford pair at 222, was put together by Klimt (Quality Road) at Darby Dan. This farm always pitches young sires at a fair level and this one could not have been a hard sell at $10,000, having lit up the Californian scene in a fashion that allowed him to be marketed as the fastest Grade I juvenile by his sire. Klimt only managed a couple of starts at three, but his third dam is a GSW sister to Breeders' Cup Classic winner Concern, the pair out of another Grade I winner.

Curlin seeks two fresh testimonials as a sire of sires from this intake. Connect took a record of six-for-eight to Lane's End at $20,000, crowned in the GI Cigar Mile, and he's out of a half-sister to the grand-dam of Grade I winner Backseat Rhythm (El Corredor) from a real outcross family. He took some bold-sounding scalps, notably that of the maturing Gun Runner–though even that credit can't quite match Keen Ice, who started out off the same fee at Calumet having famously dug a hole for American Pharoah at the graveyard of champions.

A truer measure of his merit makes him scarcely less eligible as a stallion: he showed up every time, keeping the best of company four seasons running. His second dam is a half-sister to a Grade I winner out of a half-sister to the mother of Verrazano, but the huge appeal of his page–besides some intriguing turf angles–is a 3×3 appearance by the vital influence Deputy Minister. Curlin's damsire is also sire of Awesome Again, whose daughter Medomak (half-sister to a Grade I runner-up) delivered Keen Ice as her first foal. At the very least this is definitely a stallion for end-users to remain interested in through the next three or four years.

There is also a 3×3 footprint on the page of Lord Nelson, Mr Prospector being both damsire of his sire Pulpit and grandsire of his dam. This is resonant of Pulpit's premier son Tapit, who is inbred 3×4 to Mr P. In Lord Nelson, however, that patriarch's trademark speed came through with exceptional purity: he reeled off three consecutive Grade I wins in California over six and seven furlongs as a 4-year-old, notably breaking a longstanding stakes record at Del Mar with his 1:07.65 in the GI Bing Crosby S.

Sadly, as is well known, he was then struck by laminitis and jilted 180 mares at Spendthrift. Restored by human skill and equine heart, Lord Nelson was able to cover 127 at $25,000 this year and–besides his commercial speed–they will tap into a very old Argentinian family. That almost invariably entails resilience, which we know he must have in abundance, and the class is close up too: Acorn S. winner Carina Mia (Malibu Moon), for instance, is one of two Grade I scorers out of a sister to his Grade I-winning second dam. This is a charismatic horse, all round, physique included. And we know there was more demand than supply.

Lord Nelson is from Pulpit's penultimate crop; American Freedom, launched at $10,000 by Airdrie, is from his final one. His dam, who connects us to another august name in Pleasant Tap, has also produced a MGSW and Grade I runner-up Gottcha Gold (Coronado's Quest). His family is actually full of splendid old names, and he rubbed shoulders with some of the best of his generation–albeit he would have needed a 13½-length shoulder to do so with Arrogate when second in the GI Travers S. Perhaps nothing drew 152 ladies to his door, however, quite like his rangy good looks.

Astern (Medaglia d'Oro) is already a proud father, having started his stud career in Australia–where he, like half-sister Alizee (Sepoy), won at Group 1 level–before reverse shuttling to Jonabell at $15,000. He majored in the speed so highly valued in his homeland, though whether that was by nature or nurture is hard to say: everything is possible with this sire-line.

Another transfusion of Southern Hemisphere blood is available for the same fee at Calumet, courtesy of Bal a Bali (Brz) (Put It Back). This really is something way out of the ordinary. Horse of the Year in his Brazilian homeland, he revealed the same South American iron as Lord Nelson to bounce back from laminitis after his migration to the U.S., winning two Grade Is at a mile. Even his In Reality top line makes him a valuable outcross, never mind a left-field maternal family that quickly takes us a long way, in time as well as distance: his damsire, the Brazilian champion Clackson, is a grandson of sires foaled in 1944 and 1948.

Gormley (Malibu Moon) offers access to a more familiar family tree–and familiar because classy–for $10,000 at Spendthrift. A Grade I winner at two and three, his second dam was Classic-placed in Europe and the next is champion turf mare Estrapade. He derailed in his Classic campaign but there is a lot of turf blood in his family and he could prove a very versatile influence for the 180 mares he attracted in his debut season.

One of few in the intake to have been given a fee trim is Midnight Storm (Pioneerof The Nile), but there isn't the slightest sense of panic about his drop to $10,000 from $12,500 at Taylor Made–a farm confident enough simply to make market-friendly cuts for three of its five stallions for 2019. Midnight Storm had a perfectly respectable first book of 119 and, besides extending a modish sire-line, offers exactly the kind of thing all breeders should love as an unusually durable and flexible campaigner.

A Grade II winner four seasons running! And, for those who insist on some formal Grade I icing on the cake, he wired the Shoemaker Mile field to hold off subsequent Breeders' Cup Mile winner Tourist (Tiznow) in 1:33 and change. He was, moreover, equally adept on turf and dirt–respectively the springboard for Beyers of 110 and 107. All credit to the farm, which also stands Mshawish (Medaglia d'Oro), for putting a due premium on versatility. Yes, there are some exotic names along Midnight Storm's bottom line, but that wouldn't frighten those of us who value diversity in the gene pool. Something was working, anyhow, to make him put together such a hard-knocking, old-school CV–and to look the part, too.

Among the four-figure fees, Mohaymen (Tapit) managed to stack 'em highest with 121 $7,500 covers at Shadwell. That's unsurprising granted the way he landed running off a $2.2 million yearling tag, three-for-three as a juvenile, including the GII Nashua S. and GII Remsen S., and resuming the following spring with dashing displays in the GII Holy Bull S. and GII Fountain of Youth S. But he badly lost his way after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and the wager you're taking is that his refined looks and pedigree–out of a Grade I-placed Grade II winner who also produced Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner New Year's Day (Street Cry {Ire})–will come through ahead of any of those issues that evidently unravelled his precocity. Actually there are strong echoes of his daddy to this profile. It will be interesting to see where a farm with a lot of turf mares can take him, but it's a fair price for sure.

At the same fee, the arrival at Adena Springs of Shaman Ghost (Ghostzapper) is better news for Kentucky than California, where he covered 91 mares in his first season at $10,000. He offers hardiness as well as class, a Canadian champion at three who proceeded to mix it with the best south of the border: a dual Grade I winner who also finished second to Arrogate in the Pegasus and third to Gun Runner in the GI Clark H. He's not unlike Midnight Storm, in matching class and constitution to an invigoratingly outlandish bottom line.

Those who believe elite families can proceed through horses whose own performance leave them accessibly priced, meanwhile, will want to take a look at Calumet's $5,000 pair, Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) and War Correspondent (War Front), and Gainesway's Bird Song (Unbridled's Song) at the same fee.

Then there is Hootenanny (Quality Road), standing at the same tag at Buck Pond Farm. He helped launch his sire with those Royal Ascot and Breeders' Cup wins at two and, had he gone to stud in Europe then, he would have had a queue of commercial breeders snaking down the road. Sadly that's a long time ago now but let's remember he's out of a half-sister to a Grade I winner from a good family.

And, finally, I really can't believe that only 30 mares took a chance with Crestwood's Tu Brutus (Chi) (Scat Daddy), whose molten Beyers when imported to the U.S. suggested freakish talent. He is from the family of Forego's sire Forli, and you'd think that access to a $5,000 son of Scat Daddy in Kentucky would have prompted a little more curiosity.

Chris McGrath's Value Podium:

Gold: Lord Nelson $25,000, Spendthrift

Silver: Mastery $25,000, Claiborne

Bronze: Midnight Storm $10,000, Taylor Made