WinStar TDN Belmont Preview

Horse-by-horse analysis of the 1 1/2-mile $1.5-million GI Belmont S. entrants, ranked in order of estimated win probability:

1. IRISH WAR CRY (c, Curlin">Curlin—Irish Sovereign, by Polish Numbers)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Isabelle de Tomaso (NJ). T-H. G. Motion. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-0-0, $699,460.

Last Start: 10th, GI Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands., CD, May 6

Accomplishments: 1st, GII Wood Memorial S. presented by NYRA Bets, AQU, Apr. 8; 1st, GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4; 1st, Marylander S., LRL, Jan. 23

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Irish War Cry

Beyond what you see on paper, Irish War Cry is a serious win threat in the GI Belmont S. simply off of his trainer's decision to enter him, because Motion is not one of those conditioners who deviates from a stated plan without a legitimate, horse-centric reason. His initial post-Derby intent was to freshen “Irish” until the GI Haskell Invitational on July 30, but “he's had a good couple of weeks,” Motion said. “I can honestly say this was not my original plan. After the Derby, when he ran so disappointingly, I wanted to go home and just forget about the Triple Crown, which is what the Derby does to you when you don't run well. He breezed well last weekend, and I felt he needed to be here.” After racing three or four paths wide on both turns, this 'TDN Rising Star' was one of three horses who quickened away from the rest of the pack turning for home in the Derby, but Irish War Cry couldn't match strides with Always Dreaming (Bodemeister) and, in Motion's post-race assessment, jockey Rajiv Maragh “went from having a lot of horse to not having a lot of horse in three strides.” Yet that 10th-place Derby try shouldn't be the measuring stick for Irish War Cry moving forward, especially when you consider 1) The flashes of raw brilliance he displayed at the outset of his career; 2) The fact that his two biggest wins (the Holy Bull S. and Wood Memorial) both came off five-week freshenings, just like he'll get going into the Belmont; 3) The extreme likelihood that the pace-pressing New Jersey-bred will control or push the tempo over 12 furlongs on Saturday. In sum, the third jewel of the Triple Crown is Irish War Cry's race to win or lose–and it's also his chance to wrest control of a wide-open division as the 3-year-old season shifts into its unofficial second half after the running of the Belmont S.

2. TAPWRIT (c, Tapit&log=">Tapit—Appealing Zophie, by Successful Appeal)

O-Bridlewood Farm, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Robert V. LaPenta. B-My Meadowview, LLC (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $1,200,000 Ylg '15 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-0, $343,902.

Last Start: 6th, GI Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands., CD, May 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 11, 1st, Pulpit S., GP, Dec. 10

Equineline PPs

This $1.2-million yearling has a disconcertingly high “perceived potential to delivered results” ratio, yet I'm still clinging to my earlier-season prognostication that his athleticism and attitude will sync up one of these days to put him in the winner's circle against top-level competition at a Classic distance. The scrum at the gate break in the Kentucky Derby wasn't as much of an issue for Tapwrit as it was for some of the other high-drawn horses. But what did trouble me was that later in the Derby, Tapwrit appeared to only run in spots, and even though he was only about five lengths off the leaders between calls in the stretch run, the colt never appeared to lock in mentally and put up a serious fight. The five-week freshening between starts is a potentially beneficial wild card. But that storyline also holds true for the four other Derby horses in the Belmont who skipped the Preakness, so it's not like Tapwrit holds an exclusive license on the fresh-face angle. Whether or not he's going to fire in the Belmont S. should be obvious within the first four furlongs of Saturday's race: I want to see the Tapwrit who looked confident jostling for position through the clubhouse turn in the Tampa Bay Derby, then was able to switch deftly into cruise mode while willingly responding to the subtle cues of his rider. If that happens in the early stages of the Belmont, then Tapwrit has a solid shot to remain focused through the finish, at which point his athleticism should stand him in good stead to close with authority.

3. MULTIPLIER (c, 3, The Factor—Trippi Street, by Trippi)

O-American Equistock. B-Mark Stansell (KY). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Sales History: $62,000 Wlg '14 KEENOV; $220,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP; $120,000 RNA 2yo '16 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-1, $187,310.

Last Start: 6th, GI Preakness S., PIM, May 20

Accomplishments: 1st, GIII Illinois Derby, HAW, Apr. 22

Equineline PPs

I actually thought Multiplier's sneaky-good win in the Illinois Derby two starts back might be sharp enough for him to nail a piece of the Preakness S. at 19-1 odds, but he was relatively even-paced throughout in Baltimore and could not capitalize when the race broke apart on the far turn. Although he did not regress in the Preakness numbers-wise (same 94 Beyer as his Hawthorne win), Multiplier did not demonstrate significant forward progression on his own, so the addition of blinkers in the Belmont will be tried as a spark to potentially put this gray into the race a little bit earlier. His visually impressive kick in the final sixteenth of the Illinois Derby sticks in my head as a potential building block for better efforts down the road as this colt matures (only five career races; did not race at age two), so don't cross him off your list just yet–especially if Multiplier's price creeps up above his 15-1 morning line Belmont S. ranking.

4. PATCH (Union Rags&log=">Union Rags—Windyindy, by A.P. Indy)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $230,020.

Last Start: 14th, GI Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands., CD, May 6

Equineline PPs

Somewhere down the line, the racing gods will owe Patch a more favorable post position assignment. He got buried in the one hole for his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby, drew the extreme outside 20 gate in the Kentucky Derby, and now gets the outermost post yet again in the Belmont S. (although you could argue that draw is not so much a disadvantage going 12 furlongs over the expansive Belmont main track). His 14th-place effort in Louisville was admirable considering how lightly raced Patch is (just three prior starts to the Derby) and because of the fact that he handled the muddy chaos despite a non-functioning left eye. For the third jewel of the Triple Crown, trainer Pletcher will partner Patch with go-to rider John Velazquez, who has won two previous runnings of the Belmont S. and was also the pilot for Patch's lone lifetime win at Gulfstream. Pletcher noted that Patch's bloodlines might portend a decent Belmont showing, as the colt is sired by “Union Rags [Dixie Union], a Belmont winner, out of an A.P. Indy mare, [so] there's a lot of pedigree there to suggest that he's bred to get the mile and a half, and I think his style should fit the race well.”

5. GORMLEY (c, Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 7-4-0-0, $920,000.

Last Start: 9th, GI Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands., CD, May 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 8, 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Oct. 6, 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7.

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gormley

Gormley has earned “sleeper” status in the Belmont S. at 8-1 odds. I like to think of him as a small-of-stature overachiever with an outsized reserve of physical energy, and he enters the final leg of the Triple Crown as a relatively fresh horse who has been battle-tested against top divisional foes since the autumn of his 2-year-old season. His ninth-place Derby finish is deceptively better than it seems on paper: He was four wide on both turns, stalked and settled effectively (something that had been an issue for Gormley in prior races), flashed past a cluster of horses with an outside bid after taking mud in the face, then ranged up to be within four lengths of the leaders just prior to the furlong pole before tiring from his efforts. Beyond that eventful Derby trip, consider Gormley's company lines: He's four-for-seven lifetime, and the only horses to win races against him–Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile), Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg}), and Always Dreaming (Bodemeister)–were all considered to be kingpins of the division at the time of their victories. One glaring weakness, however, might be reflected in Gormley's speed figures. According to the Beyer scale, this colt has racked up a pattern of running slower races in three consecutive starts in 2017 dating to his Jan. 7 win in the Sham S., which is not something you want to see going into a Triple Crown race.

6. SENIOR INVESTMENT (c, 3, Discreetly Mine–Plaid, by Deputy Commander)

O-Fern Circle Stables. B-Dixiana Farms LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $95,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 9-3-0-1, $372,080.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Preakness S., PIM, May 20

Accomplishments: 1st, GIII Lexington S., KEE, Apr. 15.

Equineline PPs

Senior Investment managed a respectable third in Baltimore simply by picking up the pieces of the Preakness pace meltdown. In his prior race, the Lexington S. at Keeneland, this deep closer dropped far off the action and had only one horse beaten 2 1/2 furlongs from the wire, but he kept methodically chugging along, building enough momentum to carry him past the two favorites on the lead. While I'm doubtful that Senior Investment will get a sizzling pace into which to close in the Belmont S., I do appreciate the speed-figure pattern he's put together over nine career races: According to the Beyer scale, this colt has equaled or surpassed his previous-race speed number in every lifetime outing. He hasn't improved in leaps and bounds, but Senior Investment keeps going in the right direction and always seems to outrun his odds, which is something to bear in mind betting-wise considering the average win price in the Belmont S. since 2010 is $25.

7. LOOKIN AT LEE (c, Lookin At Lucky—Langara Lass, by Langfuhr)

O-L and N Racing. B-Ray Hanson (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & MGISP, 11-2-3-2, $942,795.

Last Start: 4th, GI Preakness S., PIM, May 20

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Ellis Park Juvenile S., ELP, Aug. 6

Equineline PPs

Lookin At Lee certainly gets points for resiliency. Not only will he be the only horse in the foal crop to run in all three legs of this year's Triple Crown series, but he (and Gormley) are the only remaining entrants from last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile to still be active in the Belmont S. Trouble is, not much has changed about “Lee's” ability to break through and win a race at the upper echelon of the division during that long stretch of time. His one-run style from the back of the pack has earned Lee quite a few seconds, thirds, and fourths. But the fact remains that this colt is still winless since Aug. 6 of his 2-year-old season, has never won beyond seven furlongs, and has never won a race anywhere other than Ellis Park. Lookin At Lee gets a jockey switch for the Belmont S., and it's noteworthy that his new rider, Irad Ortiz, Jr., won last year's Belmont S. aboard Creator (Tapit), after similarly being handed the mount by trainer Steve Asmussen. Can that trainer/jockey tandem strike at a double-digit mutuel two years in a row?

8. J BOYS ECHO (c, Mineshaft&log=">Mineshaft—Letgomyecho, by Menifee)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Albaugh Family Stable & Bobby Flay. B-Betz/Blackburn/J. Betz/Ramsby/CNHHHNK (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $485,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-2-1-1, $349,600.

Last Start: 15th, GI Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands., CD, May 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 4

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on J Boys Echo

J Boys Echo has a lot to prove in the Belmont S. on Saturday. Beyond the question of actually winning the third leg of the Triple Crown, this 'TDN Rising Star' needs to demonstrate that he doesn't require ideal conditions to win against the top level of the 3-year-old division. That was the case in his most recent victory, the Gotham S. back in March, when J Boys Echo got an ultra-clean trip behind a total pace cave-in. Since then he was trounced by a maiden in the Blue Grass S. and was never truly in the hunt during any part of the Kentucky Derby. “If you watch the [Derby] replay and the head-on, everybody got pushed but he actually got slammed into,” said trainer Romans. “But he came back and he's trained well…. Last Saturday was the best work he's ever put in his life. It was the most energy he's showed and [Wednesday] he was bouncing and playing. The mile and a half should help him and hopefully we're going to see the best of him. He's got a good rhythm to the way he runs and I think that's important going that far.”

9. TWISTED TOM (g, Creative Cause—Tiffany Twisted, by Thunder Gulch)

O-Cobra Farm, Inc., R R Partners & Head of Plains Partners LLC. B- Dr. William B. Wilmot & Dr. Joan M. Taylor (NY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $22,000 RNA Ylg '15 FTNAUG; $22,000 RNA Ylg '15 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: MSW, 6-4-0-0, $209,040.

Last Start: 1st, Federico Tesio S., LRL, Apr. 22.

Accomplishments: 1st, Private Terms S., LRL, Mar. 18

Equineline PPs

Long-shot New York-bred Twisted Tom rides a three-race winning streak into the Belmont S., with his two most recent victories coming in a pair of open-company stakes at Laurel. He has a relentless, plugging-along way of going and has stretched out successfully in sixteenth-of-a-mile increments on dirt since his connections deviated from an initial turf strategy for his first three career tries (one of which was moved off the grass). The 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont S. might not be too much of a reach pedigree-wise, but the sharp step up in class is likely to provide a bracing challenge for Twisted Tom considering he has been competing in fields that have been on the short side (five, seven, and seven so far in 2017) and have not included any of the division's heavy hitters. A switch to a New York-based jockey (Javier Castellano) will provide a measure of confidence in negotiating the vast expanse of Belmont Park's main track under two-turn circumstances, but it's difficult envisioning “Tom” for anything other than a minor award against this fairly seasoned crew, even if he produces a career-best effort.

10. HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME c, Tapizar–Ladyflickerflacker, by Forestry)

O-Nancy & Mark Stanley. B-North Hanover Bloodstock (KY). T-Dallas Stewart. Sales History: $200,000 Ylg '15 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: 9-2-0-3, $123,430.

Last Start: 1st, Allowance, CD, May 14

Equineline PPs

Hollywood Handsome will attempt to parlay a first-level allowance win at Churchill Downs into a Belmont S. upset. He required five starts (several as a beaten fave) before breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds back in January, and although he was not badly beaten in subsequent stakes attempts, neither his fourth in the Louisiana Derby nor his fifth in the Illinois Derby carried enough oomph to signal imminent progression against the division's best this Saturday. Perhaps this is a horse who will just relish 12 furlongs at long odds (eight of his nine starts have been at a mile or longer, giving him a solid foundation, distance-wise). But my gut feeling is that Hollywood Handsome would need to run the race of his life and have the top four or five contenders all fail to fire in order for him to win the third jewel of the Triple Crown. That's not an impossible task (in fact, that's the scenario that more or less unfolded in this year's inexplicable Blue Grass S.). But it's certainly not a bankable one unless you're getting more than double this colt's morning line price of 30-1.

11. MEANTIME (c, Shackleford—Livermore Leslie, by Mt. Livermore)

O-Silverton Hill LLC. B-Brent & Beth Harris (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Sales History: $230,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $83,740.

Last Start: 2nd, GIII Peter Pan S., BEL, May 13

Equineline PPs

This front-running new shooter will be a definite pace factor in the Belmont S., but the obvious questions are how fast and for how long–especially considering the likelihood that the always-keen Irish War Cry figures to loom just off his flank as a menacing presence through the first half of the arduous 12-furlong test. Since debuting second in a February one-turn-mile maiden at Gulfstream at 53-1 odds (behind fellow Belmont S. starter Patch), this colt was third as a beaten favorite at seven furlongs, then aired by 7 1/2 lengths in the Keeneland mud over nine furlongs in April. His affinity for a wet surface was evident in a decent second in the Belmont slop in the May 13 Peter Pan S., and Meantime's connections felt that effort was strong enough to earn him a berth in the Belmont S. “Just to get a piece of it I'd be happy,” said trainer Brian Lynch. “My main thing is there is not a lot of speed in the race. He could be left alone, and lone speed is always dangerous.”

12. EPICHARIS (JPN), c, (Gold Allure {Jpn}–Stapes Mitsuko {Jpn}, by Carnegie {Ire})

O-Carrot Farm Co. B-Masatsugu Kamada (Jpn). T-Kiyoshi Hagiwara. Sales History: ¥26,000,000 Wlg '14 JRAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-4-1-0, $920,285.

Last Start: 2nd, G2 UAE Derby Sponsored by the Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group

Accomplishments: 1st, Hyacinth S., TOK, Feb. 19

Equineline PPs

After being treated for lameness in his right front leg earlier in the week, Epicharis was “walking sound” as of Friday morning. His connections feel the G2 UAE Derby runner-up is still on target for the GI Belmont S. and they expressed hope that he would not have to scratch from Saturday's race. A glue-on shoe has been applied to his right front hoof. “He appeared fine this morning,” said NYRA's Senior Vice President of Racing Operations Martin Panza, speaking on behalf of connections. “He's walked with a rider up on his back and they're happy with the way he's progressing. He's not going to come out, they're going to work on him this afternoon with ice. They feel confident they can make the race tomorrow, but they're still going to monitor the horse. Obviously, the horse comes first and if there's any problems, then they'll reevaluate.” This grandson of Sunday Silence was undefeated in Japan when well backed in the betting through his first four career races. In the UAE Derby, Epicharis lost what appeared to be a race-of-attrition stretch drive behind Thunder Snow (Ire) (Helmet {Aus}), who was subsequently pulled up in the first sixteenth of a mile of the Kentucky Derby. That rival returned to run with credit when second in the G1 Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh May 27.

@thorntontd

–By T.D. Thornton